banks revise forecasts

Banks revise forecasts as market rebounds

With the property market continuing to exceed all expectations as it recovers from the restrictions associated with the coronavirus pandemic, it’s been interesting to watch how rapidly the different economic forecasts have been revised lately. Of particular interest has been the changing tone of various banks and their forecasts on property prices.

The latest revision of a forecast from one of the Big Four banks came from the ANZ Bank this week. As recently as August this year the ANZ was predicting that Melbourne’s property prices could fall by as much as 15 per cent due to the impact of the pandemic. However, that forecast has now been adjusted with house prices in Melbourne tipped to rise by 7.8 per cent in the coming year.

The economists at the ANZ have been quoted as saying that “owner-occupiers, particularly first-home buyers and upgraders who had retained stable employment, were driving the market recovery, bolstered by government support and a desire to take advantage of historically low interest rates.”

As readers may remember, one of the most memorable, (and completely unfounded as it turned out), bank forecasts came from the Commonwealth Bank, which announced earlier this year that in a “worst case” scenario, property prices could drop by more than 30 per cent! In recent months, the economists at CommBank have completely changed their tune, saying that they are now also anticipating a rise in the market in 2021.

It’s not just the banks that are becoming increasing bullish either. Well known property research firm, Corelogic, has also said that they expect Melbourne home values to begin rising before the end of this year.

If the change of sentiment in the property market has got you thinking about making a move yourself, keep in mind that the team at Ian Reid Buyer and Vendor Advocates is here to provide you with experienced advice on any property matter.

If you would like to chat with an Advocate, you can call us on 9430 0000. Of course, you’ll also find plenty of useful tips in our free booklet, “Fatal Real Estate Traps Exposed”.